Joseph Aoun and the new Middle East: Lebanon at a pivotal moment

The election of Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s new president marks a significant development for a country long mired in political paralysis and sectarian tensions. For two years, Lebanon’s parliament was unable to elect a president, largely due to Hezbollah’s influence, which blocked any candidate it opposed. However, Hezbollah’s weakening grip has allowed this breakthrough — an event that reflects broader regional shifts and could signal a turning point for Lebanon’s future.

A regional realignment
The weakening of Hezbollah is emblematic of a larger decline in Iranian influence across the Middle East. Once a dominant proxy force for Tehran, Hezbollah has been diminished by Israeli military actions and internal dissatisfaction among Lebanon’s Shi’ite population. Reports suggest that Israel has effectively destroyed much of Hezbollah’s operational capacity, leaving the group “a mere shadow” of its former self. This shift has reshaped Lebanon’s political landscape, enabling a coalition of Lebanese leaders, supported by international and regional actors — including the United States, Gulf nations and, quietly, Israel — to elect a president who might help stabilize the country.

Iran is increasingly isolated, with its radar systems reportedly destroyed by Israel, leaving it vulnerable to further attacks. Meanwhile, in Yemen, Iranian-backed forces face ongoing setbacks, further eroding Tehran’s regional influence.

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The Syrian factor
Lebanon’s stability is also tied to developments in neighboring Syria, where the ousting of Bashar al-Assad and the rise of radical Sunni Islamist leader Ahmed al-Sharaa introduce new uncertainties. Al-Sharaa’s approach to consolidating power — whether through gradual Islamization or rapid transformation — could have profound implications for Lebanon. If his forces act too quickly to establish an Islamist state, they risk sparking resistance from “Arab moderates,” Israel and possibly the United States. On the other hand, a slower approach might allow Syria to stabilize, giving Lebanon breathing room to address its internal divisions.

However, the situation remains volatile. Reports of sectarian violence in Syria, including atrocities committed against Alawites, Christians and Shi’ites, highlight the risks of spillover into Lebanon. If al-Sharaa’s Syria aligns with Lebanon’s Sunni communities, this could exacerbate tensions and potentially lead to conflict with Lebanon’s Shi’ite factions, including what remains of Hezbollah.

Opportunities for Lebanon
Against this backdrop, Joseph Aoun’s presidency represents an opportunity to unify Lebanon and strengthen its sovereignty. International actors appear willing to support his leadership, with U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein recently meeting Lebanese Shi’ite leader Nabih Berri to discuss empowering Lebanon’s national army as the sole security force in the country’s south. This marks a significant departure from past arrangements, where Hezbollah operated with impunity in these areas, undermining state authority.

Israel’s insistence on disarming all armed groups south of the Litani River aligns with this vision. While past efforts to enforce such resolutions failed due to Hezbollah’s dominance, the group’s current weakness creates a more favorable environment for implementation.

Challenges ahead
Despite these positive developments, Lebanon’s path forward is fraught with challenges. The country’s sectarian divisions, economic collapse, and the potential for renewed Sunni-Shi’ite conflict remain significant obstacles. Al-Sharaa’s ambitions in the Levant, coupled with Turkish support for Lebanon’s Sunni factions, add another layer of complexity. If these dynamics lead to a broader regional conflict, Lebanon could once again find itself on the frontlines.

Lebanon stands at a critical juncture, with the election of Aoun offering a chance to reclaim stability and sovereignty. However, the success of this moment depends on the ability of Lebanese leaders, backed by international support, to address internal divisions and navigate a shifting regional landscape. As Iran’s influence wanes and Syria’s future remains uncertain, Lebanon has an opportunity to rebuild — but only if it can overcome the challenges that have long plagued its fragile political system. PJC

Harold Rhode received a Ph.D. in Islamic history and later served as the Turkish desk officer at the U.S. Department of Defense. He is now a distinguished senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute. This article first appeared on JNS.